Russia Breaks Stalemate in Ukraine, Goes on Offensive, Ex-CIA Chief Says

In a perspective that stands in stark contrast to current diplomatic and military commentaries, former CIA chief Robert Gates voices his belief that Russia has gained an upper hand in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, driving the offensive across the sprawling 600-mile war front.

An Unsettled Stalemate

“The drumbeat of war in Ukraine is less a stalemate than an excruciating dance,” observes Gates, as he discussed the dynamics of the Ukraine war with The Washington Post.

An Unsettled Stalemate

Contradicting the establishment’s belief in a military deadlock, he presents what he sees as a ground reality where Russia has regained the momentum.

Gates underscores the Russian forces’ determined pursuit: “It’s not ‘breakthrough’ kind of momentum, but instead an indication that they are the ones pressing the offensive.”

Winning Territory, Shifting Borders

Gates’s analysis focuses on the recent loss of the strategic city of Avdiivka by the Ukrainian forces as a pivotal shift in the conflict dynamics.

This loss allowed Russian troops to push their combat lines further east—a move that many analysts had warned against.

Gates recalls his readings and observations, stating, “The Russians appear to be on the offensive across various different fronts along the 600-mile frontier.”

Desperate Battles amid Supply Shortages

One would wonder if it’s just the military strategy or the dwindling supplies that have tilted the scale for Ukraine. The answer, according to Gates, is a combination of both situations.

He draws attention to the burning issue of weapons and ammunition deficits in Ukraine, hinting at a struggling war effort heavily reliant on foreign aid.

He illustrates the direness of the situation by stating, “For every artillery shell that the Ukrainians fire, the Russians are firing 10. Ukrainians now face an ammunition shortage.”

The Stalemate in Congress

As Ukraine fights a war on its soil, a different battle unfolds in the U.S. – one that takes place in the Congress chambers. Gates points to the urgency and need for further military aid to Ukraine, which currently faces gridlock in the U.S. legislature.

The Stalemate in Congress
Credit: WashingtonPost

While the U.S. has already committed over $44 billion in military assistance since the war’s inception in February 2022, a proposed $60 billion aid deal faces opposition from House Republicans. This hold-up is a cause of concern for the Ukrainian forces running short on critical resources.

John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, highlights the repercussions of this congressional stalemate: “Because Congress has yet to pass the supplemental bill, we have not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells they desperately need.”

The War Ahead

As political chess plays out in the congress halls, and Russia progressively moves offensive, the crisis is visibly intensifying. Each passing day sees a growing urgency to break political deadlocks, bolster defense capabilities, and change the tide of the conflict.

The former CIA director’s assessment offers an unvarnished look into the changing terrain of the Ukraine conflict – a view that could shape further political and military strategies.

Maintaining his unique insight, Gates leaves us grappling with an unsettling question: Is it the beginning of an offensive phase?

Only the unfolding events will reveal the true course of this conflict. As we await resolution, the Ukrainian war drums continue to echo, shifting the scales of balance with their beat.

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